Affiliate marketing is more visible among marketers thanks to inroads it has made into the creator economy, and more recently into connected TV (CTV) and commerce media. But that visibility—combined with some unforgiving changes made by Google and more sophisticated users—has strained some legacy players.

Key Question: What’s going to drive the next phase of affiliate marketing’s growth?

Key Stat: We forecast US affiliate marketing ad spending to grow at a double-digit annual rate for the next two years and to exceed $15 billion in 2028.

Executive Summary

• Affiliate continues to inch past its reputation as a bottom-funnel, tactical marketing channel. Advertisers can now leverage affiliate marketing in more places and for many use cases. That flexibility will help power double-digit ad spending growth in 2025 and 2026.
• Newer, smaller players are gathering real momentum. The healthy advertising growth we forecast for the next couple of years will be partly driven by surges from smaller, relatively new category entrants.
• Moves by Google are helping this transition along. Earlier this year, Google’s “Helpful Content Update” and its “Site Reputation Abuse” update to its spam policy resulted in a sharp decline in traffic to several properties. Today, some publishers remain badly behind their audience and revenue projections. Many of them are talking more seriously than ever about building a strategy less reliant on search.
• Affiliate marketing is entering a period of data stratification. A growing number of affiliate players can offer advertisers the ad targeting, personalization, and customization capabilities they’re accustomed to using in other areas of their media spending. While the success of those players could raise affiliate’s stature, it could also place greater pressure on publishers that cannot do the same.
• Consumers are getting smarter. Is that a good thing? Sophisticated, choosy shoppers are, in some ways, the lifeblood of the affiliate marketing sector. Yet their increasing savvy is proving to be a double-edged sword that is cutting into advertisers’ and publishers’ margins.