"In the space of what amounts to less than two years, we've seen commerce media evolve from an emerging idea to an industry pillar," said our analyst Sarah Marzano during a recent EMARKETER webinar.

• US commerce media ad spending is projected to grow by 19.6% in 2025, more than double the overall digital ad growth rate, according to a July EMARKETER forecast.
• This growth comes from two places: The continued expansion of retail media and the emergence of non-retail verticals introducing their own commerce media networks.

Here’s how commerce media is shifting—and the opportunities ahead.

Smaller networks can win through differentiation

While Amazon and Walmart are expected to secure nearly 90% of all US ad spending on retail media in 2025, per an EMARKETER forecast, over 70 other retail media networks (RMNs) can carve out valuable niches by leveraging their unique strengths.

For these networks, success lies in developing distinctive value propositions.

"Smaller players need to think through how they build on their strategic differentiators," said Marzano. "Do they bring regional expertise that goes really deep? Do they reach a certain subset of difficult-to-reach shoppers?"

Onsite search is one potential growth avenue for smaller networks.

• While Walmart and Amazon show sponsored products to “virtually every shopper on virtually every search,” there’s still plenty of white space for other retailers to lean into onsite monetization, said Marzano, citing data from Pentaleap.
• In addition, the ad tech driving onsite ads is becoming more sophisticated, delivering better contextual relevance and targeting.

Expanding beyond onsite: Offsite and in-store opportunities

For retailers nearing saturation in onsite channels, offsite offers a way to expand ad inventory and give advertisers more opportunities to reach consumers.

"Offsite holds a lot of exciting potential because it represents the opportunity for retailers of all sizes to activate the full breadth of their first-party data, free from the constraints of their owned-and-operated channels," Marzano explained.

Physical stores are another channel with untapped potential.

• While implementation presents challenges, the opportunity to enhance in-store shopping experiences through digital integration could revolutionize retail media.
• "The exciting thing is this is potentially a way to make the shopping experience more fun, more interesting in the store than it has been," said Colin Colburn, vice president of commerce and retail media at the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB).

New verticals step into the spotlight

Beyond retail, players from travel, financial services, and last-mile intermediaries like DoorDash and Instacart are carving out space in the commerce media landscape.

• Ad spending on non-retail commerce media is expected to exceed $10 billion in 2026, according to an EMARKETER forecast.

"Each commerce media network brings to the table its own first-party transaction data, but the similarities end there," Marzano said.

Last-mile intermediaries and retailers provide granular SKU-level purchase data with closed-loop attribution, while financial media networks and last-mile intermediaries offer cross-merchant purchase data that retailers can't provide.

• This diversity creates partnership opportunities across verticals.
• "There could be really interesting partnerships that play out down the road in this area," said Colburn. "There could be interesting partnerships to link up some of the qualities that one has that the other doesn't have."

AI is the next frontier

AI is redefining how consumers discover products and how media networks monetize that attention—and retailers need to be prepared.

"RMNs need to start planning along two parallel paths," Marzano explained. "There's the universal LLM assistants like ChatGPT that are increasingly influencing how consumers consider and research products, and there's retailers' own adoption of proprietary or third-party platform native assistants."

Each has its own considerations.

“The challenge is certainly looming for retailers to plan both defensively and offensively for this future that’s unfolding quite quickly,” said Marzano.

• Because universal AI assistants have their own commerce ambitions, media networks must rely on differentiators like loyalty programs and exclusive services to maintain shopper relationships.
• Meanwhile, embedding AI into their platforms can be resource-intensive, but it allows networks to create new, monetizable surfaces while simplifying product discovery and making online shopping more engaging.

Watch the full webinar

This was originally featured in the Commerce Media Weekly newsletter. For more marketing insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.