Toy industry sales soared in 2020 and 2021 as stuck-at-home consumers splurged on items to occupy their children. But the industry has since fallen back to earth. Consumers have tightened their purse strings amid the lingering effects of inflation—and retailers, in turn, have ordered fewer goods to keep their inventory levels in check.

Here are four charts that reveal where the toy industry is this year, how the consumer landscape is shifting, and what’s ahead this holiday season.

Toys and hobby sales will grow 3.3% this year

That’s down from 4.5% last year thanks to price pressures. But the industry continues to benefit from the early pandemic-era bump. This year, sales will be more than 59% higher than they were in 2019—and 51.9% higher than where we forecast 2024 sales would land back in February 2020.

Click here to view our full forecast for US toys and hobby retail sales.