The insight: Growing GLP-1 usage could reduce McDonald’s annual sales by as much as $428 million, or 1% of system sales, according to an analysis by researchers at Redburn Atlantic.

The impact could widen to 10% or more “over time,” the analysts wrote, for brands like McDonald’s that are “skewed toward lower-income consumers or group occasions.”

The big picture: Views of GLP-1s’ impact on consumption patterns vary considerably in the food industry.

• Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put is adamant that increased GLP-1 adoption has had “no effect” on demand for the company’s snacks. Based on the current data, Mondelez doesn’t expect the drugs to significantly reduce consumers’ caloric intake even over a decade. That’s a bold prediction, given skyrocketing adoption of weight loss drugs.
• PepsiCo, on the other hand, noted that while GLP-1 users still buy its products, they’re opting for smaller portions or more “functional” products that offer protein, fiber, and hydration benefits. The company is reconfiguring its portfolio to ensure it can capitalize on those trends—and avoid ceding ground to competitors with more robust offerings in those categories.
• GLP-1 adoption is an even bigger challenge for alcohol companies like Brown-Forman and Diageo. Growing usage of the drugs is one of the “big 3” structural threats—along with cannabis and Gen Z’s disinclination to consume alcohol—pressuring industrywide sales.

Bigger fish to fry: The surge in GLP-1 adoption adds to the considerable challenges all of these companies already face as economic pressures strain consumers’ budgets and curb purchase intent.

• McDonald’s management did not mention GLP-1s once on the company’s most recent earnings call, but executives did repeatedly point to softening demand from lower- and middle-income consumers as a major headwind.
• Likewise, Brown-Forman CEO Lawson Whiting noted that the primary pressure on its business is the fact that consumers have less money to spend, which far outweighs any drag from GLP-1 use.

Our take: GLP-1s are just one of the many factors influencing what consumers eat. With economic uncertainty looming large, financial concerns are the biggest consideration for the majority of consumers—which is why households are choosing to eat at home more often and increasingly opting for private labels at the grocery store.

At the same time, shoppers are paying closer attention to what they put in their bodies. “Better for you” products like yogurt and anything protein-infused are high in demand, even at more expensive price points. As it happens, those products also benefit consumers on weight loss drugs—meaning companies that adjust their offerings to account for those trends now can better minimize disruption as GLP-1 adoption grows.

Go further: Read our report on The Impact of Weight Loss Drugs 2025.