The challenge: Hasbro and Mattel may be signaling muted confidence with upgraded full-year outlooks—Hasbro raised its guidance and Mattel reinstated its forecast after a pause in May—but both faced the same headwind: Retailers delayed holiday inventory builds and postponed shelf resets into Q3, which weighed on Q2 results.

The numbers:

• Hasbro reported a 1% YoY revenue decline. The bright spot was Magic: The Gathering, which jumped 23% on the strength of its Final Fantasy set—now the biggest release in Wizards history. Adjusted EPS rose 6.6% to $1.30.
• Mattel saw revenues fall 6% YoY, driven by sharp declines in core franchises: Barbie sales dropped 25% and Fisher-Price fell 20% on a constant currency basis. Adjusted EPS was flat at 19 cents.

Our take: Weak Q2 orders could set up a rebound in the back half, but Hasbro and Mattel can’t depend on their legacy brands alone to drive growth.

To protect margins in a volatile market—tariffs alone could cost Hasbro up to $180 million this year (although it expects the hit to be closer to $60 million)—both companies need to trim SKUs and focus on proven winners, diversify their sourcing to cut tariff risk, and fine-tune their pricing and promotional levers.

Their success will ultimately depend on their ability to adapt to shifting operational pressures at a time when shoppers are increasingly concerned about rising prices and limited choices.