Trump’s new tariffs are rattling US retail and advertising; major uncertainty remains around the breadth, depth, and impact of the tariffs, especially as the goalposts shift. In this report, we model three potential outcomes, based on the severity of tariffs, to show how retail sales and ad spending could shift. We also break down the fallout by retail category and ad channel, as retailers face rising costs, consumers pull back, and advertisers rethink spend and strategies.

Key Question: How will Trump’s tariffs impact US commerce spend and ad spending?

Key Stat: Tariffs may reduce US social media ad spending in 2025 by up to $10 billion, or 10% versus our existing forecast. This would reduce its YoY growth to 1.5% versus our existing forecast of 12.8%.