Retailers aren’t waiting for Black Friday to kick off their holiday campaigns.

• Since October 1, linear TV holiday ad spend reached $475.1 million, up 13.2% YoY, according to iSpot.
• Weekly spending has also climbed steadily, indicating brands are frontloading their budgets to capture demand across all of Q4.

“Retailers and brands have to be really careful around their planning because they have to extend their budgets across so many more promotional days, and there are a lot more important days starting in October,” said our analyst, Sky Canaves, on “Behind the Numbers.”

But there’s still time to make strategic, last-minute adjustments. Here are some data-backed takeaways for marketers heading into one of the biggest shopping weekends of the year.

1. Differentiate fast to break through Amazon’s early surge

Amazon accounts for 14.3% of all linear holiday spend since the beginning of October, three times more than at this point last year, based on iSpot data. Including Amazon Prime, the company’s holiday spending is already four times higher than in 2024.

This means two things for retailers:

• It compresses the window for relevance. When a dominant player like Amazon stakes a claim early on, other retailers have to work harder to stay visible throughout the season.
• It forces late-season advertisers to differentiate. Amazon’s creative focus on joy has set the tone, leaving retailers to either put their own spin on it or set themselves apart with a completely new approach.

The takeaway: Retailers jumping in now should focus on sharp, differentiating value propositions, including category expertise or in-person experiences.

“In-person experiences are still critical in different ways. It's not about the doorbusters on Black Friday morning or at midnight,” said Canaves. “It's more about pop-ups or experiences that add value to the customer's entire holiday experience, things that translate well onto social media.”

2. Shift spend to streaming to widen your net

Retailers are diversifying their channel mix as more consumers migrate to streaming platforms.

• Amazon and Amazon Prime increased their share of retail and apparel streaming ad impressions from 9.4% between October 1 and November 17, 2024, to a combined 14.4% over the same period this year, based on iSpot data.
• Michaels and L.L. Bean more than doubled their share of ad spend on streaming YoY.

“Diversify as much as you can … to match the consumer's behaviors nowadays. They're really everywhere,” said Minyi Su, head of marketing at Bluemercury, on another “Behind the Numbers” episode. “So make sure those tactics are fully covered. [Reaching them] where they show up is key in capturing their attention.”

The takeaway: Brands can still shift some last-minute spend toward connected TV (CTV) to capture high-intent shoppers, particularly those browsing category-specific content.

3. Lean into value messaging when it matters most

Several major retailers have significantly increased their YoY spend, according to iSpot, though many are being strategic about highlighting deals.

• The Home Depot increased spend 119.4%, Target up 94.2%, and Kohl’s up 39.2%.
• Despite the heavier investment, early-season TV creative is leaning into brand, speed, and convenience rather than price, found iSpot.

And with Cyber Monday surpassing Black Friday in ad spend last year, per Sensor Tower, retailers seem to be saving their biggest deals for later.

The takeaway: The window between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday offers an opportunity for brands to deploy tactical, value-driven messaging when consumers are primed but not yet saturated with discounts.

“[Brands] have to focus on making sure that they can convey the value to consumers because what they will be looking for above and beyond everything else is the discount and the promotion,” said Canaves.

However, she noted that value isn’t solely about price, pointing to a promotion from childrenswear brand Primary last year, which offered Black Friday shoppers free shipping for the rest of the year.

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