The situation: The Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are set to drive up food costs significantly. The April 2 policy is expected to boost prices by 1.6%—roughly a year’s worth of grocery inflation by CPI standards—and all 2025 tariff actions could add another 2.8%. Fresh produce prices are projected to rise 2.2% from the April policy and 4.0% overall.

The challenging landscape is driving consumers to tighten their wallets and opt to cook at home more often, posing a challenge for quick-service restaurants (QSRs).

The numbers: With overall spending declining, dining habits are changing: