The trend: China is bracing for record travel this Lunar New Year, although it may not be enough to dispel the country’s economic malaise.

• Officials expect 9.5 billion passenger trips during the 40-day holiday travel period, including 540 million by rail and 95 million by air.
• That is well above the 9.02 billion trips taken in 2025.

Why it matters: Lunar New Year will offer the first real read on how Chinese consumers are feeling in 2026—and whether the headwinds that weighed on spending in 2025, including low consumer confidence, China’s ongoing property downturn, and uncertainty, will continue to affect consumption in 2026.

Early signs are not encouraging.

• A current viral obsession is a frowning Year of the Horse plushie, which has struck a chord among people stressed by the pressures of China’s corporate environment—an inauspicious sign heading into the holiday period.
• Retail sales growth slowed considerably toward the end of 2025—rising just 0.9% YoY in December and 1.3% in November—despite blockbuster promotional events, showing that steep discounts are no longer inducing consumers to spend.

Implications for retailers: Beijing is betting that a longer Lunar New Year holiday period—nine days versus last year’s seven days—will encourage households to open their wallets, even without the inducement of subsidies. That optimism could be misguided, given consumers’ tepid reactions to longer Singles Day and 618 promotional periods.

Still, we expect China’s retail sales growth to tick up slightly to 4% this year as the government makes a bigger effort to rein in punishing price wars and promises more measures to support consumption.