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Scenarios: What the Warner Bros. Discovery Acquisition Will Mean for Ad Revenues
Comparing Potential Outcomes for Netflix, HBO Max, Paramount+, and CTV Overall
The Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) sale is poised to reshape US connected TV (CTV) ad revenues for three major streamers, but the magnitude of the change hinges on who acquires WBD. This report models three outcomes. The core tension is bundling versus fragmentation: Concentration boosts CPMs and momentum, while standalone services face weaker growth in 2027.
Key Question: How will the ad revenue outlook for Netflix, HBO Max, Paramount+, and the wider CTV market change depending on various WBD acquisition scenarios?
Key Stat: If HBO Max is acquired by Netflix, its 2027 ad revenues will be much higher than under any other scenario, leaping from just over $550 million in 2026 to more than $800 million next year.
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authors
Ethan Cramer-Flood, Vivian Dong
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- Senior Analyst
- Kyndall Krist
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- Andrew Spink
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- Julia Woolever
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