Retailers and CPG brands may face challenges as President Donald Trump’s so-called “big, beautiful bill” takes effect, ushering in sweeping changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

• Previously, most adults had to work until age 54 to remain eligible for SNAP, unless they were parents with dependents.
• Under the new law, the required working age has increased to 64, and only parents with children under 14 are exempt.

These changes could push more than 2 million people off SNAP entirely, with over 5 million households likely to lose at least some food benefits, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP).

Feeling the squeeze: Even before the proposed cuts, SNAP recipients were struggling—86% said their benefits don’t last the full month, and nearly two-thirds expressed broader financial concerns, according to April 2025 Numerator data.

As a result, SNAP recipients are adjusting their shopping habits.

• Grocery buy rates among SNAP shoppers declined 8.4% YoY between March 2023 and March 2024, per Numerator.
• 31% of SNAP shoppers are buying less meat/protein, and nearly a quarter (24%) are scaling back on fresh produce.
• That’s a clear signal for retailers—expect smaller baskets and a shift toward shelf-stable, low-cost items.

The big-box advantage: Despite budget constraints, SNAP spending is still big business, especially for large-format retailers.

• Walmart captures 24% of SNAP shoppers’ CPG and general merchandise spend, according to Numerator.
• Other prominent destinations for SNAP shoppers include Kroger (8%), Costco (6%), Amazon (5%), and Sam’s Club (4%).
• In the 52 weeks ending March 30, 2025, SNAP shoppers shifted their CPG and general merchandise share toward Costco (up 2.0%), Walmart (up 1.2%), Amazon (up 0.8%), Sam’s Club (up 0.5%), and Target (up 0.3%).

But for brands heavily reliant on SNAP dollars, the exposure is real.

• Post, Tyson, and Conagra top the list, with SNAP dollars showing up in more than 10% of Post’s trips, and close behind for the others.
• If benefits shrink, these brands could see volume losses—unless they step up with strategic retail partnerships and direct engagement with budget-conscious consumers.

The bottom line: Trump’s bill could threaten grocery and retail sales. Retailers who act now—by responding to the evolving needs of SNAP shoppers with agility and empathy—will be better positioned to hold on to loyalty.

Retailers should:

• Reinforce value messaging and offering affordable pack sizes
• Collaborate with retailers to highlight SNAP-eligible products
• Create helpful content on meal planning and stretching grocery budgets
• Track state-level SNAP shifts to align with local market conditions

This article was prepared with the assistance of generative AI tools to support content organization, summarization, and drafting. All AI-generated contributions have been reviewed, fact-checked, and verified for accuracy and originality by EMARKETER editors. Any recommendations reflect EMARKETER’s research and human judgment.

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