The news: TikTok Shop’s sales rose 84% between March 2025 and February 2026, per NielsenIQ data, driven in part by a holiday surge as the platform generated over $1.3 billion in sales in the final two months of the year.

For the sake of comparison, our forecast—which spans the calendar year—reported 108% growth last year and projects another 48.0% increase this year.

Why is this happening? TikTok Shop’s rapid growth stems from the platform’s ability to rapidly expand its reach. NielsenIQ reports that 9% of US households made a purchase on the platform last year, and our forecast finds roughly a quarter (24.9%) of digital buyers and over half of social buyers will purchase something on the platform this year.

Engagement is also deepening, with the average customer spending $118 annually and making three to four purchases per year.

At the same time, TikTok is actively courting larger brands to reshape perceptions of the platform—from a Temu-like destination for low-cost goods to a more credible, mainstream shopping channel—and capture a greater share of consumer spending.