The news: United Airlines sees clear skies ahead.

• CEO Scott Kirby told Bloomberg Television that international travel demand and high-spending flyers are fueling profit growth in Q4, which he expects will be the highest quarterly operating revenue in its history.
• His optimism follows stronger-than-expected earnings, including a 6% YoY increase in premium cabin revenues and a 9% rise in loyalty program income.

Zooming out: United’s upbeat tone mirrors Delta’s comments last week, when it forecast another record-breaking holiday season driven by affluent customers willing to pay for comfort and convenience.

But while both airlines are thriving at the top end of the market, the broader travel landscape is feeling turbulence. Cost-of-living pressures, economic uncertainty, and stubbornly high prices are forcing many Americans to cut back on trips.

• Only about 1 in 5 (21%) of US adults plan to stay in a hotel, short-term rental, or travel by air this holiday season, down from 27% last year, per Bankrate’s 2025 Holiday Spending Report. That’s a steep drop for what’s typically a peak travel period.
• The slowdown is hitting younger travelers hardest. Only 30% of Gen Z adults expect to travel this holiday season, compared with 44% last year—a sign that higher costs and a shakier job market are grounding even the most travel-hungry cohort.
• At the same time, the erosion of budget options—from low-cost airlines to once-affordable destinations like Disney World—is turning travel into a luxury. For many households, what was once a reachable splurge now feels out of range.

Our take: The current K-shaped economy means that while airlines and brands that serve affluent consumers may keep climbing, most Americans are tightening their belts. Sustainable growth depends on winning back everyone else. To do that, the industry will need to reassert its value proposition and to find ways to make affordability part of its growth strategy.