The news: The Trump administration claimed Thursday that China has greenlit a US TikTok transfer agreement, just over a month after President Trump signed an executive order to keep the short-form video leader operational in the US. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated that the deal will enter its “resolution” phase in the coming weeks, but did not offer specifics.

China’s commerce ministry simultaneously announced that it will collaborate with the US to solve “issues related to TikTok,” but similarly did not elaborate.

Uncertainty continues: Despite the two statements, the future of TikTok in the US—and what a US-specific version would look like—remains murky.

• While reports indicate US ownership will be helmed by the likes of Oracle and the Murdochs, nothing has been confirmed. Leadership could greatly influence how a US TikTok would differ from its roots.
• Chinese leaders still don’t seem to be fully on board with US control. TikTok recently strengthened ties to ByteDance, shifting away from Western executives and distribution teams.
• The announcement comes after months of leaders promising that a TikTok deal was essentially set in stone—with no concrete answers. While China’s response is promising, it isn’t a confirmation that the TikTok saga will be put to bed.

Why it matters: While advertisers aren’t shifting budgets away from the platform yet given its popularity with key audiences, there’s no certainty that a US algorithm will keep audiences engaged, as any changes will have ramifications in the content users see.

• TikTok’s appeal lies in its “For You” algorithm that predicts engagement with high accuracy. A separate algorithm trained only on US data means US users could be cut off from some content—which would impact reach, stickiness, user retention, and time spent in the app.
• For advertisers, continued uncertainty could raise questions of whether TikTok US is capable of reaching engaged audiences at scale. Failure to maintain the same level of personalization means advertisers could face reduced campaign effectiveness. Confidence in a new app will require the new algorithm to successfully replicate what users expect from TikTok.

What it means for advertisers: Tentative talks around TikTok’s future offer short-term stability for advertisers but don’t resolve issues TikTok will face in the long-term. Even as progress is made between the US and China, the situation is far from permanently resolved. Advertisers will benefit from flexible budgets and contingency plans to ensure a rapid response based on what the US TikTok looks like.