Economic turbulence and global uncertainty haven't stopped Valentine's Day spending from reaching new heights as it takes on unique cultural significance.

This year's Valentine's Day spending will reach a record-breaking $29.1 billion, according to a January survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

• NRF found that shoppers are budgeting an average of $199.78 for gifts, up from $188.81 in 2025.
• Last year set the stage for this spending splurge. Sales were up around 11% YoY, according to PwC.

While the percentage of people participating has fallen from 63% in 2007 to an expected 55% this year, per NRF, the total spending has increased 72.2% over the same time frame.

"The people who are celebrating Valentine's Day are celebrating all of these people in their lives," said Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at NRF. "It's not really one person celebrating one other person… it's celebrating this entire circle of people around them."

Spending through it

In the face of a changing tariff situation, the Valentine's Day bump stands in contrast to how US consumers approached the holiday season.

• Last year, over a third (35%) spent less overall during their holiday shopping because of tariffs and price increases, according to August 2025 data from Radial and Dynata.
• Only 32% said they weren't planning on changing how they shopped during the holidays.

"I think consumers are largely confused about tariffs, and are also probably attributing a lot of what they see to inflation," Cullen said. "What we really found compelling was [that] more people are buying or purchasing certain categories. That is, 'I'm pivoting my wallet overall to prioritize this celebration or this category, while overall, I might be adjusting in some areas.'"

The gap between the economic uncertainty and Valentine's Day spending could come from a feeling of control, Cullen said.

"They can't necessarily impact what's going on in the geopolitical environment with inflation, but they can control creating a moment of joy and celebrating something with their community, celebrating something, creating something fun, a fun memory with their family," Cullen said.

Gifted giving

How much consumers spend is important to retailers, but so is focusing on what they're buying and where they're prone to purchase. Consumers' romance with flowers and chocolate will continue into 2026, but NRF found other gifts that will fit into a heart-shaped box.

"We saw a pretty big uptick in jewelry… if you dig deeper, a lot of that is being driven by higher income households," said Cullen. "And apparel was also another area where we saw a bit of an increase, but the biggest was jewelry and planning a special evening out."

As retailers introduce experiences into their brick-and-mortar locations, they're pushing to get consumers back in-store. For Valentine's Day, those efforts may help with both discovery and purchasing.

"[In-store] is often where people think of starting their journey, and where they actually buy will depend on what's convenient for them and what's available," said Cullen. "Gen Z is very much drawing a lot of inspiration from the store, whether or not that's where they ultimately buy."

Celebrate good times

The real story about the rise in Valentine's Day spending could be how it has evolved culturally and generationally into a holiday geared toward a wide group of loved ones that often includes oneself. For example, cat litter brand Fresh Step recently launched a campaign geared toward single people looking to celebrate Valentine's Day.

And Gen Z's focus on wellness and self-care has also potentially led to the increase in spending:

• 2025's spending rebound was led by Gen Z, whose spending was about 20% higher than their daily average January–March spending levels last year, according to PwC.

"Millennials and Gen Z, they just love a holiday overall, but since the onset of COVID-19, there really has been an uptick in interest in all of these special moments," said Cullen. "Easter tends to be strong, but Mother's Day, Father's Day, Halloween, as we know, has been growing as well."

This celebration of loved ones very much extends to pets. US consumers are expected to spend $2.1 billion on their pets for Valentine's Day this year, according to NRF.

"There's just a huge nostalgia factor that we've seen with younger consumers… They didn't want to let that holiday go," said Cullen. "Of course, I'm going to give something small to my friends, or buy something for myself. That idea of giving little treats or commemorating these things, I think it's still really key to people."

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