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Learn More →Retail Sales - Tariff Reversal
Retail
per Person
Physical Retail
Retail Sales, by Product Category
Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Product Category
Core Retail Sales
by Device
by Distribution Strategy
by Season
Scenario: Tariff Reversal
Scenario: End-to-End Agentic Commerce
Source: EMARKETER Forecast, February 2026 - February 2026
Note: excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales
Additional Note: The “tariff reversal” scenario assumes the Supreme Court invalidates President Trump’s 2025 IEEPA-based reciprocal tariffs, including the global 10% duty and related emergency-declaration actions. Removing these tariffs lowers import costs and channels duty refunds into promotions and discounts, creating a modest near-term lift in nominal sales for import-heavy retail categories versus the Q1-2026 baseline.
Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.