Source: EMARKETER Forecast, February 2026 - February 2026
Note: excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, restaurant sales, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales; excludes Hong Kong
Additional Note: The “tariff reversal” scenario assumes that The Supreme Court rules that President Trump exceeded statutory authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad import tariffs, and therefore invalidates the global 10% tariff, the higher reciprocal tariffs, and all other 2025 tariff actions based on emergency declarations.
Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.