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Explore our Research →Shoppers hate paying for return shipping more than any other part of the process
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Scam exposure on social platforms threatens brands
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Capital One joins finance industry layoff trend, sheds 1,100 Discover workers
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Learn More →Retail Ecommerce Sales - Trade Escalation
Total Retail
Ecommerce
Mcommerce
Physical Retail
by Company
by Product Category
Core Retail Sales
Scenario: Trade Escalation
Scenario: End-to-End Agentic Commerce
Source: EMARKETER Forecast, February 2026 - February 2026
Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet, regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, restaurant sales, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales
Additional Note: This scenario assumes President Trump reopens his prior threats after a deal is not reached for the US to purchase Greenland, moving forward with a 25% tariff on NATO allies. In response, the European Union retaliates using its Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI, or “trade bazooka”). Employing this would shift the conflict from a "tariff war" to an "economic blockade." The EU wouldn’t just tax U.S. goods; it would restrict US tech firms from government contracts, freeze intellectual property rights for US pharmaceuticals, and limit the ability of US financial institutions to operate in the Eurozone. All of this would create a near-term confidence/credit shock for European households and introduce ecommerce-specific friction through payment network and cloud/provider disruption risk.
Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.