A tariff-induced economic slowdown could reduce our forecast for US retail media ad spending in 2025 by about $5 billion. But even in a “heavy tariff” scenario, ad spend will grow YoY as brands looking to maximize spending in the face of economic uncertainty focus on performance metrics.

Key Question: How will tariffs affect retail media advertising?

Key Stat: Heavy tariffs could reduce our forecast for US retail media ad spend by $5 billion in 2025. But even in that scenario, spending would still grow by 8.5% YoY.

This report can help you:

• Develop media strategy and allocate budget for campaigns (agencies and brands)
• Showcase opportunities to customers (retail media networks)

In this report, we model three potential outcomes for US retail media ad spending, based on the severity of tariffs, to show how ad spending could shift.