The US retail industry has been in the crosshairs of volatile tariff policies that threaten price increases across a broad swath of consumer goods. Ecommerce sales growth will slow markedly in 2025 as the industry grapples with uncertainty. But the longer-term outlook will bring opportunities for growth in key channels and categories, and the growth will be from Gen Z buyers.

Key Question: What’s the outlook for US retail and ecommerce sales in 2025 and beyond?

Key Stat: Under the moderate tariffs scenario, US ecommerce sales will grow by 5.0% in 2025, compared with our previous forecast of 7.9% growth.

This report can help you: develop commerce strategy and benchmark commerce performance (retailers and brands)